WHAT IS REALLY GOING ON IN CABO DELGADO?

Ansar Al Sunna, ISIS rebels of Mozambique

I spent most of my Sunday debating people who were happy that Cabo Delgado is in turmoil because they thought they had caught me in a lie.

This is after I wrote an article on the 8th of March 2020, bragging about how the Zimbabwean and Mozambican allied expeditionary force, had wiped out the Ansar Al Sunna Islamic Militants in Cabo Delgado, in just two months.

So when many heard of the latest attacks in that area late last week, they thought that they had caught me in a lie, failing to appreciate that the key to understanding this issue, is allowing those with a bit of insight to speak, having knowledge of geopolitics, understanding US Petrol Dollar policy, paying attention to detail and not listening blindly to the #SaddamHasWMDs western media.

Our story starts in 2011, when an Italian company called Eni, discovered 450 billion cubic meters of gas reserves off the coast of Mozambique. This was the biggest natural gas discovery in Southern Africa and after further exploration by an American company, reserve estimates have been bumped up by another 30%.

Immediately, there was a scramble by companies from all over the world, to get into Mozambique. As a response, Total pledged to invest $15bil in a gas to oil plant, to exploit the resource; Shell is currently constructing a $20bil project, while a French and Japanese company have made similar investments.

However, the problem facing Mozambique is, after expropriating Iraqi, Libyan and Syrian oil fields and increasing fracking at home, the United States is no longer a net importer of oil and oil products. They are now one of the biggest producers of the commodity. Along with that, four of the seven sisters of oil, which contribute greatly to US gdp, are US companies.

So, for the country to fully benefit from its fossil fuel bounty, it needs to maintain healthy oil prices by keeping a tight grip on oil supplies, to control oil prices as De Beers does with diamonds. By so doing, they can also enforce the sale of global oil in US dollars, to maintain demand and value of the dollar. This is known as the Petrol-Dollar.

To maintain its Petrol Dollar - a monopoly on the price of oil and the currency oil is traded in since the 1970s oil crisis- the US has bought OPEC’s biggest producers Saudi Arabia and the UAE, by supplying them with vast amounts of military equipment and overlooking their atrocious human rights records. In turn, the Saudis and Emiraties use their power in OPEC to dictate oil production quotas and prices to other nations who can’t afford a price war with the giants.

Another common method, is destabilizing non-aligned oil rich nations by sanctions, civil wars and where necessary, invasions to take over their oil and then establishing military bases in those countries, to secure the oil for America. This is something we saw done to Libya, Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan where the 1 milion barrel per day, TAPI: Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India pipeline, is being planned.

Right now, Nigeria is facing Boko Haram, Iran and Russia are under US-EU sanctions because they are non-aligned to the US, while the Taoudeni basin in the Sahara has been destabilized by Fulani terrorists and is now dotted with US and French bases. Venezuela is under stringent sanctions that have killed no less than sixty thousand people, while the Berlin Conference allies have tried to orchestrate an invasion, which was foiled by an aggressive Venezuelan counter-propaganda campaign.

In Sudan and Chad, the Chinese have discovered vast amounts of oil but the region continues to face instability and coups caused by the US and France. Coming closer to home, the East African region of Kenya and Somalia is being terrorized by Al Shabaab, yet each of those countries have various US military bases that are failing to end the terrorism.

So, with the discovery of gas in Mozambique, we saw the sudden emergence of disgruntled muslim youth in the country, uncharacteristically taking up arms, rising up against their own communities and demanding jobs in the oil fields of Cabo Delgado.

Initially, these rebels operated more like gangsters, using violence against civilians to extort support for their movement. It’s only in 2019, when their attacks became more targeted at security forces, that the Mozambican government approached Russian and South African private armies alongside SADC, for assistence.

From 2019 into 2020, Mozambique appealed to the AU for military aid, but it was not forthcoming. Eventually in September 2020, the US Trump administration asked the Zimbabwean government to play a role in Mozambique. The Zimbabwean government responded by asking Trump to consider removing sanctions in exchange.

Without really knowing what was agreed between Zimbabwe and the Trump administration, a month later, Zimbabwe sent a reconnaissance team to assess the situation in northern Mozambique.

By mid December 2020, one of our sources began to talk about being deployed with 3000 other soldiers to Mozambique by end of December, as part of an allied expeditionary force of Mozambicans and Zimbabweans.

Unlike the first Mozambican war, we are told that this time, Zimbabwe was not only focused on honoring a military alliance agreement with a neighbor or just protecting the Beira Corridor, but they were also intent on getting rewarded for their assistance. So claims are that promises of oil, were part of this deployment agreement.

The December deployment was surrounded by secrecy and it’s alleged that Zimbabwean soldiers were being integrated into Mozambican military structures to fight as Mozambican soldiers. Something we have not been able to confirm from independent senior army officials.

Initial assessments in Mozambique identified the rebels as Ansar Al Sunna. They were an organic grouping with no ties to any of the well known regular muslim terrorist groups. They were not well equipped, as they were using old weapons from the Mozambican civil war. Their level of organization was rated as amateurish at best and their strategy was mainly sporadic guerrilla style hit-and-run attacks on civilians for food.

As a result of this reduced risk assessment, we are told by sources, that the Zimbabwean contingent was eventually reduced to 1300 men from the 3000.

The men left behind were adamant that dealing with the insurgents would be simple, once they broke civilian support for the rebels.

The Zimbabweans are said to have quickly implemented the Russian scorched earth doctrine used against dissidents in Gukurahundi, to close off community support for insurgents.

The approach, tailored to deal with religious fundamentalists or fish-in-water guerrilla tactics, involves security forces embarking on an integrated campaign to prevent civilians from supporting terrorists, even if they are family.

The campaign is based on integrating soldiers into the community, gaining the trust of the communities by re-education drives, intelligence gathering, soldiers protecting villagers from retribution and attacks from terrorists.

Where communities are stubborn and continue to support terrorists who cause pain in the community, a more heavy handed approach is used to break the spirit and will of recalcitrants who support insurgents.

As can be expected, a lot of Russian textbook spirit breaking took place in Cabo to quickly destroy the fundamentalism by terrorists and their family members.

By mid February, the tactic had worked and we began to hear reports that Ansar Al Sunna began fleeing north into Malawi and Tanzania because it was becoming difficult for them to operate in Cabo Delgado.

In short order, refugees began to return alongside business people and tourists like the South Africans caught up in a hotel in the region. After its own risk assessment, just three days ago, Shell announced that it will be recommencing construction on its $20bil project in the area.

How could corporations of the calibre of Shell and hotel chains have decided that it was safe to resume operations, if the terrorists were not under control, as the western media is trying to make us believe?

Much debate remains around methods used to deal with civilians who support insurgents, with many soldiers on the ground feeling that the Geneva Convention is clear that civilians who assist military combatants with the intent of giving them an advantage in a war, are a threat to security forces and thus lose their civilian protections and can be engaged as military targets.

While that principle is not in dispute, the departure is others believe that civilians who support militants in a war, must be arrested and tried in civilian courts for such crimes. However, consensus is that this is not practical on the ground in third world Africa because there are often not enough resources in an insurgency to arrest, imprison, feed, process, docket and secure civilians or terrorists, then still continue the job of saving communities from terror attacks.

Nevertheless, within the celebrations of defeating the insurgents, we are told that reports began to reach the UN, that war crimes were committed upon terrorists, their women and children.

The US and EU, took keen interest in pushing the AU to investigate these crimes, but the AU was ambivalent, as their only concern is having less conflict on the continent.

The US is then said to have approached the Mozambican government directly, and asked for Mozambique to allow US instructors to come in and train their soldiers on humane counter insurgency. Quite an oxymoron, considering that the ICC is currently investigating US war crimes in Afghanistan, Libya and Iraq.

They are said to have also asked Mozambique to allow UN peacekeepers to takeover the job in Cabo. Although the Mozambicans were reluctant, the threat of the UN investigating the claims of crimes against humanity, were used to apply pressure.

As part of the conditions, Zimbabwean soldiers were to be debriefed and released and the US and UN (the US’s private army) would take over. This is something the US has done before, when they pressured the UN to cancel a UN mission involving Zimbabwean soldiers in Sudan. The Zimbabweans refused to leave because they felt civilians would be left exposed to warlord attacks, if they left without securing them. The UN immediately cut support, leaving the troops stranded. At that point, the Ugandan government stepped in to support those soldiers with food and arms until their mission was done.

Since the US and Mozambican government meeting, we are told that the 1300 Zimbabwean soldiers have since returned to Zimbabwe and as soon as they returned, South African and western media went on overdrive, talking about the untenable situation in Cabo Delgado, yet it was secure when the Zimbabweans left.

What is not making sense is how hotels are open, oil companies are investing, construction is resuming and foreign visitors are moving into this area that is meant to be in ISIS hands. Why would hotels be open under these kind of conditions and why would foreign companies at risk of liability claims, not evacuate staff, unless Cabo Delgado had indeed been secured as claimed by our sources?

Another thing is all along, rebels that were in the area were known as Ansar Al Sunna, but now we are hearing that Saudi funded Al Shabaab, which is active in Kenya and Somalia where the United States has bases, is now in Mozambique.

When we asked our sources, they said that Ansar Al Sunna were on the run, but the new rebels who undertook the latest strikes since Zimbabwe left, are not the same rebels but better armed, much more organized, more experienced and well funded terrorists.

This leaves the question as to what is really going on in Cabo?

1. Firstly, we have to acknowledge that these types of terrorist activities seem to replicate themselves where ever a third world nation finds oil, where ever the US wants to establish a base or where the US have military presence in Africa.

2. It would seem that in line with US Petrol Dollar and foreign policy, the US have a vested interest in controlling Mozambican gas, to regulate supply and maintain prices for the profits of their gas companies.

3. Since Trump reached out to Zimbabwe, it looks like the Biden administration (Biden is one of the sponsors of Zimbabwe’s ZDERA sanctions) wants to ensure that Zimbabwe does not get access to oil in Mozambique, as US sanctions on any country are centered on restricting access to oil and US dollars to pay for oil.

4. Finally, as with all other places where the US control oil, chances are they are also considering establishing a permanent presence (a US base) to secure the resource. And as I have written in a previous installment -where Zimbabwe, Zambia and Mozambique meet- we have a small little area called Kanyemba, where Zimbabwe is said to have vast uranium deposits.

Alongside that area is Muzarabani, which is said to also hold some of the largest inland deposits of gas and potentially oil, outside the Taoudeni Basin.

Rumors are that the US has been negotiating with the Zimbabwean government for rights to develop a huge city and US military base there, to close out the Russians and Chinese. However, sources say that the Zimbabwean government has not been forthcoming.

So, now the suspicion is that the US is using terrorists to try and pressure the two countries [Zimbabwe and Mozambique], to give up control of their fossil fuels and uranium, with the intention of establishing a permanent presence [military base] in a strategic location in any of the two states.

This is why the white media of South Africa, alongside its western partners, has jumped onto making a loud noise about Cabo Delgado, yet they were quiet since December when Zimbabwe was doing it’s job there and corporate civilians were free to travel to the region in safety.

It's seems like this is another elaborate US false flag to pave way for US presence in the region. However, the problem is once the US army come into a region, they never leave, turmoil ensues, they cause more false flags using Islamic terrorists and destabilize the region to advance US foreign policy. We must start paying attention to alternative sources of information and not white media.

By Rutendo Bereza Matinyarare of ZUAUWS.